With California’s gubernatorial primary just days away, a new poll suggests the race to replace Governor Gavin Newsom has narrowed to three leading candidates competing for a spot in the November runoff.
According to the latest Emerson College/Inside California Politics survey, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra holds the lead with 28% support among likely voters. Close behind are billionaire businessman and Democrat Tom Steyer at 22% and Republican commentator Steve Hilton at 21%.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco trails in fourth place with 12% support. Other candidates, including former Representative Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, remain in the single digits.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters between May 27 and May 28 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Five percent of respondents said they were still undecided.
Pollsters say Becerra has emerged as the clear frontrunner after a turbulent campaign season. The race was dramatically reshaped in April when former Congressman Eric Swalwell, who had been leading many early polls, abruptly withdrew from the race following allegations of sexual misconduct and later resigned from Congress.
His departure created an opening for other Democratic candidates to gain momentum, with Becerra appearing to benefit the most. Since Emerson’s previous poll in mid-May, Becerra’s support has climbed by nine percentage points.
Steyer and Hilton have also gained ground, increasing their support by five and four points respectively. Bianco saw a smaller one-point increase. Meanwhile, Porter and Mahan experienced declines, dropping five and three points.
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said both Steyer and Hilton remain viable contenders for the second runoff spot. According to Kimball, Hilton could pull ahead if Republican voters consolidate behind his campaign, while Steyer’s chances depend heavily on strong turnout from younger voters.
The survey found that Becerra has built a strong coalition among several key voting groups, earning 44% support from Democrats, 36% from Hispanic voters, and 36% from women. Hilton, meanwhile, has secured a dominant position among Republicans, capturing 59% of GOP support, while Bianco receives 29%.
Steyer’s strongest base comes from younger voters. Among Californians under the age of 30, he leads the field with 36% support.
With the primary election approaching, the latest poll indicates that Becerra, Steyer, and Hilton have separated themselves from the rest of the field, setting up an intense battle for the two spots that will advance to California’s November general election.
