As the 2026 midterm elections approach, talks of impeaching President Donald Trump for a third time are increasing. Democrats and some critics point to recent events, including new releases from Epstein-related files and a social media post by Trump that showed former President Barack Obama and his wife depicted as apes. Congressman Al Green called the post “raw, rank racism” and has pushed for impeachment before. He sponsored resolutions last year and introduced the latest one, H. Res. 939, on December 10, 2025. That resolution was tabled by a vote of 237-140, meaning it did not move forward.
Other Democrats have joined the call. Representative Jasmine Crockett of Texas said there is “more than enough” reason to impeach Trump, starting with his use of tariffs, and she supports starting formal proceedings. Senator Ed Markey urged invoking the 25th Amendment in a January social media post tied to reports about Trump’s interest in taking over Greenland.
A non-partisan group called Blackout The System has a Change.org petition accusing Trump of greed, corruption, and lack of accountability. It has gathered over 167,000 signatures.
Trump was impeached twice in his first term: in 2019 over Ukraine dealings and in 2021 over the January 6 Capitol attack. The Senate acquitted him both times.
No impeachment is happening right now. A third one would need a majority vote in the House to approve charges of “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors,” followed by a two-thirds Senate vote to convict and remove him. With Republicans holding slim majorities in both the House and Senate, that’s a tough path.
Betting markets reflect low but growing odds. Polymarket gives about a 13-14% chance of impeachment by the end of 2026. Kalshi shows around 6-7% by June 1, 2026, rising to 14-15% by January 1, 2027, and over 60% by January 1, 2028.
Trump has warned Republicans that losing the midterms could lead to impeachment attempts against him. He told them, “You got to win the midterms, because if we don’t, they’ll find a reason to impeach me.” He uses the threat to rally support and fundraising, turning impeachment into a political tool rather than just accountability.
An opinion piece by Theodore R. Johnson in early February 2026 argues that impeachment has become overused and weakened. Recent examples include impeachments of Trump twice and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in 2024. Now, Democrats threaten to impeach current Secretary Kristi Noem over immigration policy issues. Johnson says this makes the process more partisan than effective. He notes Supreme Court rulings granting immunity for official acts and a divided Congress make the presidency “effectively unimpeachable.” He suggests reforms like requiring a two-thirds House vote to impeach and updating the definition of offenses, but those changes seem unlikely.
Trump has made controversial statements about elections ahead of the midterms. On February 2, in a podcast interview, he said Republicans should “nationalize the voting” and “take over the voting” in at least 15 places, claiming some states are “crooked.” He did not explain how, but it came after an FBI search of 2020 voting records in Fulton County, Georgia. The Constitution gives states authority over federal elections, with Congress able to pass some laws.
Trump also joked about canceling elections. Speaking to Republicans, he said, “I won’t say cancel the election, they should cancel the election,” then added that critics would call him a dictator. He stressed winning to keep the slim Republican majorities and avoid losses typical for the president’s party in midterms.
The 2026 midterms are set for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats (one-third of the Senate) are up for election. Republicans currently control both chambers narrowly.
Polls and predictions vary. A recent Economist/YouGov poll showed 39% would vote Democratic for Congress if held today, 31% Republican, and 30% unsure or other. Betting on Polymarket favors Democrats winning the House (around 82% odds in some reports) but Republicans keeping the Senate (around 63%).
Midterms often hurt the president’s party, and recent disapproval of Trump’s immigration policies could play a role. Democrats see a chance to flip the House, which might enable impeachment efforts, while Trump pushes his party to hold power and protect against that risk.
Overall, while impeachment talk is loud, political realities make it unlikely soon. The midterms will decide much of the power balance in Washington.
