The record-breaking cocaine boom has swept across the globe, driving up supply, use, and tragic consequences like overdoses and violence. This surge traces back mainly to changes in Colombia, the world’s top producer of coca, the plant used to make cocaine.
A few weeks ago, in Upland, California, near Los Angeles, a police officer pulled over a car during a routine traffic stop. The officer’s dog, Petey, started barking wildly. When they searched the vehicle, they found about 66 pounds of cocaine hidden inside. The Upland Police Department shared the story online: “Drugs off the street, smuggler went to jail, and our good boy got a steak.” Stories like this are becoming more common as drug busts increase nationwide.
These seizures represent only a tiny portion of a much larger problem. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s World Drug Report (most recently covering trends up to 2023 data), global cocaine production reached an all-time high. Production hit more than 3,708 tons in 2023—a 34% jump from the year before. Seizures, users, and cocaine-related deaths also climbed to record levels in many places, making cocaine the fastest-growing illegal drug market worldwide.
What caused this massive increase? Economists Xinming Du, Benjamin Hansen, Shan Zhang, and Eric Zou explored this in their working paper, “Coca’s Return and the American Overdose Fallout.” They point to policy shifts in Colombia starting around 2015.
For years, Colombia— with strong U.S. support—fought coca farming aggressively. Aerial spraying and other efforts shrank coca fields from about 168,000 hectares in 2000 to just 48,000 by 2013. Cocaine became scarcer and more expensive in the U.S.
Then came a “perfect storm.” In 2015, Colombia stopped its U.S.-backed aerial fumigation program over health concerns about the chemical glyphosate, which some feared caused cancer. Later, in 2016, the government signed a peace deal with the FARC guerrilla group. FARC had long controlled and taxed coca production in their areas to fund their fight against the government.
When FARC demobilized, a power vacuum opened in remote regions. Other armed groups, including FARC dissidents and cartels, moved in. These new groups pushed farmers to grow more coca to strengthen their control.
A government program meant to help farmers switch to legal crops backfired too. It offered money and aid to those who destroyed their coca plants, but farmers planted more to qualify for the payments. As a result, coca cultivation exploded. By 2022, Colombia’s coca fields and potential cocaine output were more than three times higher than in 2015 levels.
Much of this extra cocaine flows to the United States and Europe. DEA data shows cocaine seizures grew sharply after 2015, while other drugs did not. With more supply, prices dropped, making cocaine easier to get and more appealing.
Cocaine is an “experience good”—people often need to try it to want more. A big supply increase means more people try it, like it, and keep coming back, creating a demand boom too.
The deadly side effects soon followed. After years of stable cocaine-related deaths, overdoses involving cocaine began rising sharply in the late 2010s. The economists estimate that without the post-2015 Colombian surge, the U.S. would see about 1,500 fewer overdose deaths each year.
For perspective, in 2023, around 30,000 U.S. overdose deaths involved cocaine—about 28% of all overdoses. (This is far less than synthetic opioids like fentanyl, linked to roughly 73,000 deaths or 69% of the total.) The study found the link holds even for deaths involving only cocaine, not just mixed with fentanyl.
The fallout extends beyond the U.S. In Colombia, the cocaine boom has fueled higher homicide rates—up about one-third overall, with bigger jumps near ports. Violence has spilled into Ecuador, a key transit country, where homicides rose nearly fivefold. Europe has seen a surge in cocaine use too, with similar harms.
Policymakers are responding. The cocaine issue has strained U.S.-Colombia relations, including high-level talks between leaders focusing on fighting the trade. The economists’ work shows supply-side efforts—like cracking down at the source—can reduce use and deaths. As Hansen notes, drug traffickers act like businesses: make production harder, and they scale back, much like regulating any company.
This boom shows how policy changes in one country can create global ripples, from street-level busts to rising overdose tolls thousands of miles away.
